SSP Cash Power Rankings: 1Q Senate Edition

Just as we did yesterday for the House race scene, SSP has ranked the Senate races this year in terms of their cash-on-hand competitiveness. This measure reflects the ratio of the challenger’s cash-on-hand to that of the incumbent. The only difference is that this time, in the interest of comprehensiveness, we’ve included several candidates who are defending open seats currently held by their party (marked in italics) and slotted them in the incumbent column — because, hey, we had to stick ’em somewhere. So without further ado:























































































































































































































































































































































































Rank State Candidate Party CoH Incumbent* Party CoH Rating
1 VA Mark Warner D 4,384,294 Jim Gilmore R 208,133 2106%
2 NM Tom Udall D 2,582,990 Steve Pearce R 855,203 302%
3 NM Tom Udall D 2,582,990 Heather Wilson R 1,196,053 216%
4 CO Mark Udall D 4,236,533 Bob Schaffer R 2,160,863 196%
5 ME Tom Allen D 2,687,701 Susan Collins R 4,511,493 60%
6 MN Al Franken D 3,491,480 Norm Coleman R 6,960,913 50%
7 NJ Rob Andrews D 2,232,312 Frank Lautenberg D 4,702,249 47%
8 NH Jeanne Shaheen D 1,837,539 John Sununu R 4,313,762 43%
9 LA John Kennedy R 1,623,391 Mary Landrieu D 4,564,082 36%
10 ID Larry LaRocco D 253,707 Jim Risch R 935,876 27%
11 OK Andrew Rice D 597,478 Jim Inhofe R 2,221,848 27%
12 NE Scott Kleeb D 281,095 Mike Johanns R 1,335,390 21%
13 AK Mark Begich D 204,207 Ted Stevens R 1,318,722 15%
14 IL Steve Sauerberg R 1,074,982 Richard Durbin D 7,567,277 14%
15 MS-B Ronnie Musgrove D 337,249 Roger Wicker R 2,765,229 12%
16 KY Greg Fischer D 854,557 Mitch McConnell R 7,741,422 11%
17 NE Tony Raimondo D 140,720 Mike Johanns R 1,335,390 11%
18 NC Kay Hagan D 312,000 Elizabeth Dole R 3,200,000 10%
19 KS Jim Slattery D 286,125 Pat Roberts R 2,986,794 10%
20 OR Jeff Merkley D 473,833 Gordon Smith R 5,149,251 9%
21 GA Jim Martin D 333,132 Saxby Chambliss R 3,637,392 9%
22 KY Bruce Lunsford D 666,373 Mitch McConnell R 7,741,422 9%
23 TN Bob Tuke D 217,093 Lamar Alexander R 2,874,512 8%
24 SC Buddy Witherspoon R 257,911 Lindsey Graham R 4,777,019 5%
25 OR Steve Novick D 197,007 Gordon Smith R 5,149,251 4%
26 TX Rick Noriega D 329,294 John Cornyn R 8,688,954 4%
27 WY-B Nick Carter D 26,743 John Barrasso R 1,139,381 2%
28 MA Jim Ogonowski R 186,929 John Kerry D 9,323,486 2%
29 AL Vivian Figures D 44,628 Jeff Sessions R 4,033,195 1%
30 SD Joel Dykstra R 20,393 Tim Johnson D 2,523,586 1%
31 MT Kirk Bushman R 8,097 Max Baucus D 6,394,024 0%
32 SD Sam Kephart R 2,107 Tim Johnson D 2,523,586 0%
33 MT Michael Lange R 1,976 Max Baucus D 6,394,024 0%

A few notes:

  • There are several incumbent Senators who have either not drawn challengers, or their opponents have not filed FEC reports: Biden (DE), Cochran (MS-A), Enzi (WY), Harkin (IA), Levin (MI), Pryor (AR), Reed (RI), and Rockefeller (WV).
  • These numbers were compiled from the National Journal and the Senate Guru.

16 thoughts on “SSP Cash Power Rankings: 1Q Senate Edition”

  1. Definitely a few use it or lose it candidates up there, Baucus, Kerry, and Durbin mainly.  I’d say Warner should donate some of that but he’ll probably save it for a presidential run, assuming that is transferable.

    I see no hope in Texas.

    Sparks shouldve gotten into Alabama, regardless of the potential race issue.  I would hope that any black person in Alabama would look at Sparks and go, oh he is actually campaigning I’ll support him even though the other candidate is black.

  2. Several comments:

    Tom Allen impresses.

    Jim Risch does not.  Mike Johanns even underwhelms.

    Andrew Rice impresses.

    Rick Noreiga does not.  Merkley and Novick do not.

    Roger Wicker has raised a shitton of money.  That sucks.

    What in the hell was the VA GOP thinking?  Who on that side stood to gain by denying Davis the nomination?  I’m imagining that they tried to extort a concession of some kind from him, he refused to budge cause he actually didn’t want to run that badly, and to maintain their future credibility, the rightwing of the VA GOP had to follow through on their threat or lose their power to extort in the future.  They completely ceded the race by going with Gilmore, and the internal politics that led to that choice must have been fascinating.  And probably vile too.

    Similarly, I assume Vivian Figures wanted to be bribed out of the primary.  And Ron Sparks either didn’t want to run that badly or in the end, didn’t want to run at all.

    And oh yeah.  Michael Lange LOL.

  3. Here are my first impressions:

    – Mark Warner and the Udalls make me happy. If VA and NM look like blow-outs in October, I really, really hope that they’ll be sharing. I’d love to pick up a couple of congressional districts in those states.

    – Are Tom Allen and Al Franken spending? They’ve got reasonable cash-on-hand versus their incumbents, but the ME and MN races don’t seem to have changed that much. If they’re not spending much and they’re trying to build up, that’s fine. But eventually I want to see the strong fundraising translate into movement in the polls.

    – I would have expected Jeanne Shaheen to have more at this point. I kind of put her in the Warner/Udall category, and she’s got a lot of support. I’m kind of surprised that she’s so far down on Sununu.

    – Begich and Slattery impress me, considering how little time they’ve been in the race.

    – Who is Steve Sauerberg, and how does he have that much against Durbin? That stood out to me.

    – I haven’t been following the Kentucky primary, though I’m under the impression that Fischer is the netroots “good guy.” They’ve both got decent fundraising (though nothing on McConnell), but are they spending it bashing each other or McConnell? I just want to learn more about the dynamics of that race. I’ve got to pay more attention.

  5. Great work putting it together, James. And alarming.

    Looking at the ratios, we are not well positioned to capitalize in the Senate races if the tide breaks our way.

    NH looked like a likely pick-up bit Shaheen’s personal approvals have dropped and her opponent has a nice edge in cash. She is doing respectably but I expected near-parity in this one. In one we can easily lose, Landrieu’s edge is not overwhelming. Most distressing is Gordon Smith’s massive edge. He should be easy pickings. Also, we could take down Stevens if everything breaks right. Alaska voters are quirky. They have had their share of scandals to alienate them from Stevens. And there is the rift within the state GOP to exploit.

    Well, at least TIm Johnson looks in good shape financially. the health question is a problem and he should have lost last time. And the Udalls are a gift from the gods. Not only can they win their races and help the national ticket but the 3 GOP House members running against them created good shots at House flips.

    But, with the Obama-Clinton brawl sucking all the oxygen out of the room, the pie is sliced pretty thin when the Senate challengers get their taste. We have to settle the nomination so donors will turn their eyes to other races.

    Looking at the lack of CoH, I think Obama should stay in the public funding system in the fall. Donors have limited funds and imagine how much downticket money will be diverted to the top of the ticket. It would be nice to take advantage of Johnny Mac’s problems with his own base but I think we would end up hurting our performance downticket.

    Isn’t it odd the GOP is not cranking up for Gilmore? Even if they can’t hold the seat, you’d think they’d invest just to prevent Warner from hurting McCain’s position in the state.

    I’d feel better about taking down Collins in Maine but she will endorse Obama, change parties, and wax the cars of the entire state if she has to.

    Franken worries me. I have concern about his appeal to the DFL folks who ran off to vote for Ventura. Coleman has talent. And, if Johnny Mac taps Pawlenty for veep, we could be headed for disaster in Minnesota.

  6. to push out the more moderate and much better fundraiser/campaigner Davis in favor of Gilmore?  Seriously… it Gilmore even trying to raise any money to win?  Davis could have at least made it a marginally competitive race.  Once Warner really starts spending this thing could be a 20 point landslide.

  8. A couple of things on OR-SEN:

    1) Having two candidates raising dilutes the raising power of both. That said, the two of them have combined for over 2.25 million dollars raised for the primary, which ain’t too bad.

    2) Novick’s CoH is AFTER his big ad buy; Merkley’s is BEFORE.

    3) After the primary, you’ll see some rallying behind Novick…I mean, the nominee. 🙂

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